The ultra-hardline Iranian newspaper Kayhan argued yesterday that the West is confused about how to engage Iran in the aftermath of Iran’s election and crackdown on peaceful demonstrators. However, it isn’t confusion that they’re witnessing – it’s a surprising role reversal. Many people who previously advocated for engagement now say that we need to hold off for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that Iran’s fragmented political system is in too much disarray to respond to U.S.-backed diplomacy. Conversely, many hawks in the U.S. are now arguing that engagement must begin immediately.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has made it clear what the Obama administration thinks. “We’ve certainly reached out and made it clear that’s what we’d be willing to do, even now, despite our absolute condemnation of what they’ve done in the election and since, but I don’t think they have any capacity to make that kind of decision right now,” she said. As one blogger astutely put it, demanding Iran to talk to the U.S. right now would be akin to Russia demanding that the United States negotiate an arms reduction treaty in the midst of Bush v. Gore.
Rather than benefiting from Iran’s vulnerabilities, engaging now could lead to the most dangerous scenario. As Dr. Parsi said yesterday in Foreign Policy magazine:
Of all scenarios the Obama administration could end up facing — an Iran that refuses to come to the table, for example, or an Iran that only uses talks to play for time — the worst scenario is another one: where the parties begin talks according to the set timetable, but fail to reach an agreement due to an inability to deliver. If talks fail, U.S. policymakers will be left with increasingly unpalatable options as a result.
Perhaps this explains why advocates of sanctions and/or war, who not long ago were saying that we shouldn’t talk to Iran at all, are now saying that the U.S. should engage Iran immediately with a short timetable.
Why the role reversal? Many in Washington believe engagement is a pointless exercise and are eager to impose sanctions and/or bomb Iran. The perma-skeptics of diplomacy think we should impose an artificial deadline, rush to engage, and then run headlong into Iran’s political paralysis. Their plan would have us miss the deadline, sanction Iran as much as possible, and then lobby for the U.S. to bomb Iran when sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Of course, this is an incredibly foolish “solution.” As every Iran expert worth their salt has noted, bombing Iran is perhaps the only thing that can cement this government’s hold on power indefinitely into the future.
With Israel’s head of intelligence publicly saying Iran won’t be able to develop a deliverable nuclear weapon until 2014 at the earliest, the U.S. can and should wait for the right time to engage.
The ultra-hardline Kayhan newspaper, which frequently serves as the mouthpiece for the supreme leader, yesterday cited a variety of sources, including John Bolton, to argue that Washington is confused about what to do with Iran. [Memo to Tehran: Bolton doesn’t speak for the Obama administration.]
Numerous published reports demonstrate the U.S. and West’s strategic confusion.
While John Bolton, former US ambassador to the UN, announced “Obama has no new strategic thinking about Iran,” news reports indicate that the old strategy has also broken down and the U.S. and Europe are in a state of total confusion.
One proof of this confusion is that during the past month, the US President, Foreign and Defense Ministers have arrogantly requested negotiations with Iran…[They] even set the end of September as a deadline for negotiations without saying what they are going to do if Iran does not respond to their need for negotiations. This invitation – combined with threats!- also appears in the G8 statement. The U.S. Foreign and Defense Ministers have emphasized on their sense of urgency for talks, particularly during the past week. Despite this, Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy representative, claimed nuclear negotiations with Iran are not possible in the near future because of election issues and human rights violations in Iran.
He added: “I do not think Iran will respond to the offer made by the 5+1 group for nuclear talks…anytime soon.”
This video depicts members of the basij forcefully ambushing and arresting a demonstrator. The demonstrator is forced onto a motorcycle where it is presumed that he will be transported to a prison.
According to BBC Persian, Mohammad Hossein Sofi the deputy head of Iran’s state radio (seda) indicated yesterday that the musical works of prominent and world renowned Iranian singer/musician Mohammad Reza Shajarian will never be played on the radio again.
This has been deemed to be the reaction to Shajarian’s requested that his music not be played in the past month. Sofi has gone as far as indicating that “Shajarian’s music will not even be played during the Holy month of Ramadan”.
This follows up on NIAC’s live-blogging report from June 17, in which we quoted Shajarian in an interview with BBC Persian:
“Don’t broadcast my voice on Seda va Sima ever again: my voice is like ‘dust and dirt,’ and it will forever remain ‘dust and dirt!’”
Shajarian has been protesting the use of his music by the state media since the presidential elections. He has applied for legal proceedings against the state controlled media (Seda Sima). According to his lawyer,Shajarian’s works have been used to highlight the government and this was done without the permission of Shajarian.
In a new statement, the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom expressed their concern for the threat against the revolution and asked the people to continue their movement.
These days, the great nation of Iran is facing immense calamities which shake the heart of any human being and freedom-lover.
The Islamic Revolution was to protect people’s rights, eliminate illegal and illegitimate prisons and torture…and for administer Islamic rules.
Today…the holy goals of the Islamic Revolution are under attack and some will not be satisfied with anything but destroying the achievements of the regime.
Every day we hear about martyrdom of one of this nation’s children and they announce this with total audacity…after a while, the dead bodies of detained people are delivered to their families. Illegal prisons without basic amenities and humane standards have been created.
Everyday news of inhumane treatment and torture comes out. They don’t allow burial of and mourning ceremonies for those killed and all of this is being done in the name of Islam, Quran and the guardianship of the jurist.
Great nation of Iran must know that the opinions of Friday prayer leaders or others, even if made in the name of religions centers, is not the opinion of all [honorable Ulema, Marjas (sources of imitation), and religious scholars.] Rather, the hearts of the scholars are worried and sorrowful about recent events and will always be with the great nation of Iran and the suffering people.
People of Iran [should] continue their movement within the framework of the constitution and its principles that guarantee their freedom to assembly…
The Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom end their statement with an advice to the authorities:
The earth will not be ruined but by the poverty of its inhabitants. People become poor when the governors take property, are not certain of the survival of their own government and do not learn from experience.
According to Radio Zamaneh, Tehran Police Chief Brigadier General Azizollah Rajabzadehconfirmed the arrest of 50 people at the Behesht-e Zahra cemetery yesterday.
Rajabzadeh said no one was killed yesterday yand denied reports regarding the security forces breaking the windows of people’s cars.
The sad truth is that the world still does not know how many people have been arrested or killed since the turmoil began after the June 12 elections. The Guardian has been trying to keep track:
A month ago today, the Guardian began an attempt to record the names and faces of those killed or imprisoned in Iran since the 12 June election – and we asked you to help, locating the blogs, Facebook profiles and news stories connected with those in the protests against what was claimed as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory.
Iran’s official figures for the six weeks since the election include 2,500 arrests in Tehran alone, with as many as 150 still in jail and 30 dead. The true figures are believed to be much higher – the death toll could be in the hundreds.
Our figures come from human rights groups and campaigners inside and outside Iran, news reports and our users. They are: 80 dead, around 750 still detained, just under 100 released and 10 missing or not heard of since the mid-June protests.
According to Kodoom, Ali Asghar Hadizadeh, prolific Iranian Paralympics two time gold medalist and a Member of the sixth Iranian Parliament was arrested during the silent demonstrations of Tir 24th (July 15) in Tehran’s Engelab Sq.
Ali Asghar Hadizadeh who is also the head of the Iranian blind team, became a paraplegic during the Iran Iraq war in which he became a decorated veteran. After his release from prison he resigned from his post. His arrest is the latest in the government’s attempts in silencing athletes, entertainers and artists.
This is a footage that was taken from demonstration last night in Tehran. The person taking this footage is stating “in every corner and every intersection there are people setting fires and they [basij] are running amongst them, who are even more confused.”
You can also hear the popular chant from the demonstrators against Mojtabah Khamenei, calling for his death before he could take the office of the Supreme Leader.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart last night featured former Bush Administration UN Ambassador John Bolton, who is now a senior fellow at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC. Bolton has been busy lately, penningop-edsontheneedforharshactionagainstIran, lest Tehran obtain a nuclear weapon and destroy Israel and the United States.
Aside from his bizarrely enthusiastic support for what he calls “Iranian dissidents” (based on his description, it’s clear he means the MEK), Bolton laments the fact that to this day neither Israel nor the United States has “stepped up” to attack Iran militarily. He tries to depict his recommendation as the product of a rational calculation, and even goes so far as to call his conclusion regrettable; but his eagerness to attack Iran comes across on television as bloodlust, plain and simple.
And as if that weren’t brazen enough (though it did remind us all why we’re not exactly nostalgic for his term at the United Nations), he finished the segment with a flippant comment about how he wishes the United States were the only nuclear-armed country in the world. Our friend Joe Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund took that one on over at the HuffingtonPost, articulating how Bolton’s joke was as unwise as it was unfunny.
With all the unrest in Iran over the last few weeks, and the disturbing images that have been coming out of the country, at least we can find some comfort in the fact that no one but the most fringe elements in the neoconservative camp take any of these arguments seriously. Small comfort.
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