John Bolton says the answer to Gaza crisis is attacking Iran…

update: Bolton continues his tirade over at the Wall Street Journal where, for reasons unknown, he is continually given an arena to proclaim that doomsday is upon us all…

US speaks up on Alaei brothers detention and human rights center closure

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack released this statement today:

“The United States condemns the closing of the Center for the Defense of Human Rights and urges Iranian authorities to allow this and similar civil society organizations to operate free of oppression. On December 21, Iranian authorities closed down the civil society organization of Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi just prior to a ceremony celebrating the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Moreover, authorities briefly detained Ms. Ebadi, a renowned human rights defender and both the first Iranian and the first Muslim woman to win the Nobel Peace Prize in its 102 year-old history.”

Boston Globe slideshow: In Iran, life at the margins

A trip to Iran’s capital reveals a population living in the margins between democracy and dictationship, but looking hopefully toward renewed US relations and greater personal freedoms.

(Report by Farah Stockman, Globe Staff; Produced by Jason Tuohey, Boston.com Staff)

Iran to preside over 2010 NPT Review Conference?

I’ve been meaning to post this for awhile now, and it’s only now that I’ve found time.  But a couple weeks back, Jill Parillo from Physicians for Social Responsibility arranged a wonderful event called “Steps to Zero” at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  The evening featured a great panel of speakers talking about the nuclear challenges we’ll all face in the coming years and how to deal with them.  The wonderful Sharon Squassoni mentioned–nearly in passing–that there are rumors going around that Iran might be chosen to act as the President of the 2010 Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. 

In her words: “This would be a disaster.” 

Breaking: Obama to appoint special envoy to Iran

from the Washington Times:

EXCLUSIVE: Obama to create Iran outreach post
Eli Lake, THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Friday, December 19, 2008
The incoming Obama administration plans to create a new position to coordinate outreach to Iran and is considering a number of senior career diplomats, State Department officials and Iran specialists say.

President-elect Barack Obama promised during his campaign to seek dialogue with Iran without preconditions in an effort to persuade Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, but also has pledged to toughen sanctions.

A State Department official said the idea of naming a senior Iranian outreach coordinator was broached in the first transition meetings with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Mr. Obama’s choice for secretary of state, and her transition team earlier this month.

“The idea is that the position should build on the existing diplomatic framework,” the official said. He asked not to be named because a nominee has not been announced.

A spokeswoman for Mrs. Clinton declined to comment for this article. Brooke Anderson, a spokeswoman for the transition, also would not comment.

However, several Iran specialists said such a position was in the works.

“There is every indication that they are seriously considering going this way,” said Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a group that has warned of the dangers of Iranian proliferation.

Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, an organization that supports U.S.-Iran dialogue, said that a special envoy position for Iran is planned.

Hans Blix calls suspension precondition “silly”

Former weapons inspector Hans Blix, an interview with ABC News, had some interesting things to say about the challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear program.

According to Blix, demanding that Iran suspend enrichment before negotiations is ’silly’

ABC News: From the latest IAEA report on Iran, what did we learn about the state of their nuclear program?

Hans Blix: Not very much new. It said that [the IAEA] cannot confirm that there is intent about nuclear weapons. But they’ve never been able to do that … however much they search and don’t find anything, that isn’t going to change the attitude in Washington or London. They’ll say, maybe they don’t have intention now but they could change in two months’ time.

ABC: Are you concerned by Iran’s intent?

Blix: The commission that I headed took the view that it is desirable to persuade Iran to walk back from the enrichment program because it has already increased tensions very much. Western powers came out and said they could facilitate investments and economic relations, we can support them to get into the World Trade Organization, we believe in civilian nuclear power industry. But first they must suspend enrichment. I’m skeptical about this last point, the conditionality. For Iran, the building up of the program is the trump card. And who throws away the trump card before the game starts? So I think that conditionality is silly.

NIAC round-up

1. Haass and Indyk: Middle East needs Obama’s touch, Financial Times
2. Dalton: A new approach is needed to tackle Iranian nuclear debate, The Telegraph
3. Israel warns U.S. of Iranian nuke attack, USA Today
4. World leaders clash on Iran sanctions, Washington Times
5. IRAN: A government bailout for an ailing stock market?, Los Angeles Times
6. Oil thrown on to uncharted waters, The Times (UK)
7. Iran to halt fuel oil exports in Q1; eyes winter, Reuters
8. Fla. jury deliberating Iranian night goggles case, AP, December 17, 2008

Rice declares victory in war of influence over Iraq

Check out Democracy Arsenal’s look at Condoleezza Rice’s recent statements that seem like a relatively creative interpretation of the situation facing Iraq today.

Secretary Rice, along with other US and Iraqi officials, have acknowledged that Iran has made a deliberate decision to curb its destabilizing influence in Iraq, but she places the credit for this entirely on US pressure.

“It was getting to be a very tough business, given that we pursued them and pursued them hard,” the secretary said.

I think this is a pretty myopic take on things, and at best wishful thinking.  The situation in Iraq has improved over time because of a combination of factors: the troop surge, Gen. Petraeus’ change in counterinsurgency strategy, the Sunni Awakening, political reconciliation within Parliament, and Iranian cooperation with the Maliki government.  These, and probably hundreds of other factors, are the reason Iraq is better off today than years past.  And now with Iraq’s acceptance of the revised Status of Forces Agreement, why shouldn’t Iran feel more comfortable than before?

The lesson Secretary Rice should learn from this experience is not that harsh rhetoric, unilateral sanctions, and threats of attack are an effective way to deal with a problem.  Rather, the experience in Iraq proves that engagement between nations on issues of mutual interest can lead to a healthy and productive relationship.

This is a beautiful opportunity for the US to learn a lesson in democracy from its fledgling democrats in Iraq.  Let’s hope Secretary Rice will take another look.

NIAC round-up

1. Analysts Urge Obama Not to Delay Action on Talks, IPS
2. Iran skipped Afghan meeting over French remarks, Reuters
3. Germany wants new sanctions against Iran: report, AFP
4. Iran cuts support for Iraq groups, BBC
5. Global woes pose risks, also openings for US, AP
6. Iran’s bloggers thrive despite blocks, BBC
7. Nobel laureate urges Iran to release “Blogfather”, Reuters
8. Iran’s YouTube Generation, Wall Street Journal
9. Iran 2008 share losses modest, oil key to 2009, Forbes
10. Iran proposes up to 2 million bpd OPEC cut, AP

Disgruntled Iranian Students

more about “Disgruntled Iranian Students“, posted with vodpod

A student at Shiraz University refused to ask  visiting speaker of parliament and former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani a question because, “I don’t accept you as the legitimate speaker or the parliament as legitimate.”

The student continued, ” I hate three things. One, I hate [President] Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Two, I hate him for his hypocrisy…” The video becomes a bit incomprehensible as students for and against the government start chanting, so we don’t know what the third reason is. Throughout the scene, Larijani remained quiet and calm.

Despite censorship, Iranian students were able to use Youtube to increase the visibility of their protests.

NIAC round-up

1. Obama’s atomic umbrella: U.S. nuclear strike if Iran nukes Israel, Haaretz
2. Obama wants to ‘reboot America’s image’, AP
3. Iraq asks Obama to hold new U.S.- Iran talks, Reuters
4. Iranian Leaders Debate Obama’s Policy Freedom, Antiwar.com
5. Thomas: Iran Poses Both Danger and Opportunity for Obama Administration, VOA
6. Sarkozy comments spark Iran row, BBC
7. Rights activist says barred from leaving Iran, Reuters
8. Iran to block more websites, confront bloggers, Middle East Times
9. Dating site ‘prostitution’, says Iran, The Guardian
10. Oil surges above $48, Reuters

Ros-Lehtinen introduces bill to block UAE nuclear deal over Iran smuggling

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen introduced a bill today (H.R. 7316) blocking a 123 Agreement with the UAE over that country’s shipments of goods to Iran despite current sanctions.

Basically, this bill would prohibit the US from entering into a civilian nuclear agreement with the UAE until it stops shipments of goods, services, and technology to Iran currently under US and UN sanctions.

One passage that stands out in this bill extends the prohibition until the UAE “has developed and implemented the appropriate or necessary legislative and functional actions to target the logistical and financial networks that support terrorist organizations.”  Huh?

I think it’s safe to assume “logistical and financial networks that support terrorist organizations” is a convoluted way of saying Iran’s financial and military sectors.  The intentionally vague language here makes it nearly impossible for the UAE ever to satisfy this requirement.

As for the rest of the bill, it’s pretty straightforward–no seriously inflammatory rhetoric toward Iran–just a hard-nosed ultimatum to the UAE: stop going around our Iran sanctions or we won’t send you our high-tech stuff.

And for anyone who paid attention to the US-Russia 123 Agreement from this summer, you’ll notice a popular proposal that surfaced in the House Foreign Affairs Committee: changing the procedure for granting Congressional approval to 123 Agreements.

Under existing rules, the President submits a 123 Agreement to Congress for review.  After 90 days, unless Congress adopts a resolution blocking its entry into force, the agreement is adopted.  This bill would reverse that process, and require explicit Congressional approval for any agreement to be approved.

This is a pretty popular idea, in part because this summer the Bush administration waited too long to submit the Russia deal to Congress and consequently, there weren’t even 90 days left in the term.  It’s pretty clear the old procedure doesn’t make a lot of sense, so look for this bill to get noticed by a HFAC members from both sides of the aisle.