Insanity: Doing the Same Thing and Expecting a New Result

At NIAC’s policy conference last Tuesday, Ambassador James Dobbins noted that the current debate over Iran is not about the fundamental shift towards diplomacy that is needed to create a more effective Iran policy, but rather a discussion on how to properly implement America’s policy of preemption.

“It’s important to recognize that the debate we’ve conducted is not between one group who believes that we should launch a preemptive military strike against Iran, and the other group who said we shouldn’t. Rather it was a debate between one group who said we should talk to them first, and another group who said, no, we don’t even have to talk to them first.” So the only thing both sides agree on is that preemptive strikes are on the table. As for dialogue, the jury is still out.

Dobbins noted, “Insanity has been occasionally defined as continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results.” For nearly thirty years, the U.S. has had a policy of regime change with regards to Iran. What has it gotten us? The Iranian government is still there. They have more centrifuges and more fissile material. Iran’s human rights record continues to shock and disgust the world.  So how do we break this pattern of insanity?

NIAC Round-up

1. Iran Urges Lebanese to Unite Against Israel, Reuters
2. Iran: Hardliners Urge Iraq to Reject Security Pact, AP
3. Iran As Destabilizing Influence, VOA
4. Iran dissident leader lobbies in Germany, UPI
5. Ignatius: Free Hossein Derakhshan, Post Global
6. Iran Says Could Use Force Against Pirates- Report, Reuters
7. Raimondo: Obama’s Foreign Policy: The Case for Pessimism, Antiwar.com
8. Release of Iranian raises questions in Iraq, Los Angeles Times
9. Rights Violations In Iran, VOA
10. Iran fights rise in sexually transmitted HIV, Reuters

Taxi Revolution in Tehran

A women’s Taxi service in Tehran is providing much needed jobs for war widows and divorcees, according to the BBC. It began with about 10 taxis, and now boasts over 700 cabs handling 2,500 jobs a day. Some customers say that they feel more comfortable with a woman behind the wheel, while others think the company has filled a gap in the transportation industry.

While this may not be considered a victory for women’s rights, there are plenty of Middle Eastern countries where this would not be allowed and, as such, is a step forward for women in Iran.

NIAC round-up

News and opinion from around the world today.  Click on the links for relevant, timely, and always-informative news highlights concerning Iran:

1. Gause: Nuclear overreaction, The National (Abu Dhabi)
2. Iran to Dominate Last Meeting of Ehud Olmert and George W Bush, Telegraph
3. Israel Fears US will Dither while Iran goes Nuclear, The Times
4. Some in Arab World Wary of Clinton, Washington Post
5. Afrasiabi: A New Spin on Iran’s Nuclear Fuel, Asia Times Online
6. US official urges Iran to seize chance for amends, AP
7. Lebanon and Iran expected to talk weapons, Los Angeles Times
8. Iran arrests ‘Israel-linked spy network’, AFP
9. Iran risks spending squeeze in election year, Reuters
10. OPEC head sees need for further deep output cut, Reuters

(h/t Tony)

Who are we supposed to believe?

Yesterday’s IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program caused quite a stir about when Iran might reach a so-called “breakout capacity” for nuclear weapons development.  According to William Broad and David Sanger of the New York Times:

Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb.

The nuclear material in question, low-enriched uranium (LEU), is used for electricity generation in a nuclear power plant.  It is called low-enriched uranium because it is enriched up to only 5%, as opposed to highly-enriched uranium (HEU) or “weapons-grade uranium,”  which must reach levels above 90%.

According to the IAEA, Iran’s program has produced 630 kg of LEU to date.  By itself, this poses no real problem, but if Iran were to re-enrich its LEU stockpiles into HEU, it theoretically could produce a nuclear weapon.  Obviously, that’s bad.

But here’s where it gets interesting.  Last September, the IAEA released a similar report saying Iran had produced, at that time, a stockpile of 480 kg of LEU.  Nearly every news account went on to quote an unnamed UN official as saying:

[Iran] would need 15,000 kg (33,000) [of LEU] to convert into high-enriched uranium for fuelling an atom bomb…That would be a significant quantity, one unit of HEU, and would take on the order of two years.

So which is it?  Either Iran needs 15,000 kg of LEU to produce a bomb as the UN official claimed, or it already has enough material with its current stockpile of 630 kg.

I looked into this a little further, and here’s the answer I found: neither figure is correct.

Iranian American addresses House Committee

A recent and prominent example of Iranian-American participation in American civic life took place on Thursday, November 13th when Houman Shadab testified on Thursday, November 13th before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hearing entitled, “Hedge Funds and the Financial Market.” Houman is a senior research fellow in the Regulatory Studies Program of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

At the hearing, Houman addressed the committee on issues pertaining to hedge funds and the financial crisis. This was the fifth such hearing since the financial crisis began and while the prior four have dealt with the reasons leading up to the crisis, the fifth addressed future risks to our economic stability.

New IAEA report issued on Iran nuclear program

The IAEA released its latest report on the Iranian nuclear program today.  I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet, but will post some thoughts later.

More to come…

NIAC round-up

This is the first installment of a recurring thread here at niacINsight called the NIAC round-up.  The idea is to give you a quick glance around the landscape from our vantage point here on K Street, and maybe you’ll come across something you might not have seen otherwise.  Let us know what you think in the comments section below… 

1. With our annual policy conference tomorrow, the neocons and MEK are at it again.  This time, they’re mobilizing anyone they can to try to disrupt our event on Capitol Hill.  Fortunately for us, the Capitol Police generally keep a tight lid on officially-designated terrorist organizations trying to disrupt Congressional business.  I think we’ll be fine.
2. Speaking of our conference, news outlets are buzzing about the Joint Experts Statement on Iran that we’ll be unveiling as part of our panel discussion called “Can Obama Untangle the Iranian Challenge?.”  Check out the coverage here and here.
3. Iran testfired a new solid fuel missile last week…or did it?  Check out this expert analysis of Iranian missile design from our friends over at ArmsControlWonk. 
4. Robert Dreyfuss over at the Nation wagers that the Iraqi cabinet approved the US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) yesterday because Iran gave up its opposition to the SOFA out of deference to President-elect Obama.  An interesting theory–perhaps another subtle hint that Iran might be ready to deal with the US once the 44th President takes over. 
5. Still nothing on the US Interests Section…
6. I’ll be speaking on Thursday as part of a videoconference with Americans for Informed Democracy.  The topic of discussion is “At a Crossroads: Diplomacy & Iran” and the videoconference will consist of universities in predominantly Muslim countries in Africa and the Middle East along with universities from throughout the United States and hopefully Iran.  It is scheduled for 10:00 AM EST – 12:00 PM EST on November 20, 2008. To register, contact Vicente Garcia.

Former State Dept official echoes neocon oil argument

The continuing saga of the only new idea neoconservatives have had regarding Iran.  Though the blockade bill died in Congress, the idea of stopping oil exports to Iran continues…

Former State Department negotiator Orde Kittrie spoke on Thursday about viable alternatives for pursuing peace with Iran at Johns Hopkins University’s School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) where he is a visiting professor. “A US or Israeli military strike on Iran is bad idea and a nuclear Iran is a bad idea. We should attempt to persuade them peacefully” he said.

Abduction of Iranian diplomat could spur US-Iran cooperation

From the New York Times:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Gunmen abducted an Iranian diplomat in the chaotic city of Peshawar in Pakistan’s northwest Thursday, a day after the assassination of an American aid official there.

The diplomat, Hesmatollah Atharzadeh, who was the commercial counselor at the Iranian consulate, was leaving his house in the suburb of Hayatabad when the gunmen attacked, the police said. His driver also was killed.

Reports blame Taliban militants for the abduction as well as the surge in recent violence in Pakistan’s tribal areas.  Though the mounting crisis in Pakistan is a terrible tragedy, one can’t ignore the implications it could have on regional politics.

This most recent Taliban attack on an Iranian diplomat could push Tehran closer to cooperating with the US on Afghanistan and Pakistan.   With a common enemy in the Taliban, the US and Iran both stand to gain by teaming up to bring greater stability to the area.

Also, in light of the recent news about Obama’s plan to engage Iran on Afghanistan, (and I hate to belittle the news of this attack) this just might prove to be a catalyst for greater US-Iran cooperation.

Obama administration to engage Iran on Afghanistan

The Washington Post reported yesterday that the Obama administration will look to Iran for assistance in Afghanistan. Obama strategists have said that the idea is to have Iran as an interlocutor rather than another element which impedes progress. Iran’s record in Afghanistan can be seen as a both a positive force for change– aiding US troops against insurgents and helping to overthrow the Taliban–and an obstacle to progress by funding the insurgents.

The incoming administration cites many reasons as to why Iran and the US can be on the same page about Afghanistan, not the least of which is that neither the US nor Iran “want Sunni extremists in charge of Afghanistan.” Additionally, the growing violence threatens not only the US’ continued objective of supporting a relative democracy but also the stability of surrounding states.

Iran tests long range missile, US condemns

From the Los Angeles Times

U.S. denounces Iran over long-range missile testOfficials say the rocket test violates U.N. resolutions and is evidence of Iran’s growing nuclear threat.

By Borzou Daragahi
November 13, 2008

Reporting from Beirut – U.S. officials Wednesday condemned Iran for test-firing a long-range surface-to-surface missile, which they called a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and a threat to other countries.

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammed Najjar earlier in the day announced the successful launch of a new class of two-stage, solid-fuel rocket called the Sejil.