Homafaran 2.0

Feb. 08, 1979

“The nation will stun the world on the 22^nd of Bahman.” Those were the exact words of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when giving a speech to the commanders, fighter-pilots, and personnel of the Air Force division of the Iranian Army yesterday. What was more stunning was the ambiguity of support – one might say – from this historically authoritarian challenging Army. The 22^nd of Bahman in the Persian calendar is equivalent to February 11^th, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Exactly 31 years ago, a fairly large number of the Imperial Iranian Air Force, Homafaran, defected and submitted their support to Ayatollah Khomeini in the revolutionary days of Iran. That was a significant build up to the movement that toppled the Pahlavi Dynasty only three days later on February 11, 1979; a day which many believe changed the political dynamics of the Middle-East forever.

The Iranian Army has a history of neutrality when it comes to internal disputes, and has repeatedly refused to pick up arms against its own citizens. That culture and attitude is still alive today. The Iranian Army, which is consistent of its own ground, air, and naval forces, is the only military wing of the armed forces of Iran that has stayed out of the post-election battle. Every other armed group including the police, commanded by the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has contributed support to the brutal post-election crack down inside Iran. Taking into account the sensitivity of the political arena in Iran today, a lack of clear support for Ayatollah Khamenei, the “Supreme Commander of Armed Forces” of Iran, is an audacious move by the Army. However, that is exactly what happened when the Air Force personnel of the Army met with the Supreme Leader yesterday.

Feb. 08, 2010

Contrary to the photographs printed in the hard-line media that suggest salute and obedience to the Supreme Leader, the content of the report presented by the commander of the Air Force had no reference to the current political affairs of the Islamic Republic. According to the pro-government newspapers, the report only had a summary of the recent military advancements of the Army in recent military exercises. Ayatollah Khamenei would have certainly appreciated a more concrete support, especially on a symbolic day like yesterday.

The Army has a reputation among Iranians for being a “sanctuary for the people” in difficult times. In an anonymous recent statement that circulated in the internet, many high ranking Army officers from across the country expressed outrage at the brutality of the IRGC and all the forces under its wing during the recent crack downs. The statement specifically mentioned that even though the Army has taken an oath to stay away from politics, it will not be quiet against violence toward its own countrymen.

There is certainly some stunning to be done on February 11. Let’s wait and see who will stun whom.

Palin Parrots Pipes on Iran

Following her keynote address to the national Tea Party Convention yesterday, Sarah Palin added fuel to the the flames of speculation about her possible bid for the presidency in 2012.  During an interview with her now-employer Fox News, Palin was asked her opinion about President Obama’s chances for reelection:

If the election were today, “I do not think Obama would be re-elected,” she said. But he has a chance if he gets “tough” on terrorism, she added. “Say he played the war card. Say he decided to declare war on Iran, or decided to really come out and do whatever he could to support Israel, which I would like him to do. But that changes the dynamics in what we can assume is going to happen between now and three years.”

Forgetting for a moment that it is the Congress, not the President, that is empowered with the authority to declare war, this is a pretty brash statement, even for Palin.  It is rare that a public figure would call for military action against Iran so explicity — and to call for such drastic action as a purely political ploy breaks an even stronger taboo in Washington circles. 

So it cannot be a coincidence that Palin’s advice to President Obama comes just days after prominent anti-Islam activist Daniel Pipes wrote nearly the identical thing in the National Review.  “How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran” was the title of the article, which my colleague Jamal picked apart well enough that I don’t have to here.  But I thought it interesting that Palin would so casually align herself on foreign policy issues — by all accounts her political Achilles Heel — with such a divisive figure as Pipes. 

Deja Vu All Over Again

On the heels of last week’s testimony by Tony Blair before Britain’s Chilcot panel regarding the Iraq war, Seumas Milne discusses in the Guardian yesterday the parallels between the 2002 run up to war with Iraq and the current escalation in rhetoric and military forces aimed at Iran .

In his column, “The lessons of Iraq have been ignored. The target is now Iran”, Milne writes, “We were ­supposed to have learned the lessons of the Iraq war. That’s what Britain’s ­Chilcot inquiry is meant to be all about. But the signs from the Middle East are that it could be happening all over again.”

He goes on to compare the current Iran rhetoric and George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil” speech, and analyzes the recent US announcement that it is “boosting its naval presence and supplying tens of billions of dollars’ worth of new weapons systems to allied Arab states.  The target is of course Iran.”

“In case anyone missed the parallels, Tony Blair hammered them home at the Iraq inquiry last Friday.” Milne writes, “Far from showing remorse about the bloodshed he helped unleash on the Iraqi people, the former prime minister was allowed to turn what was supposed to be a grilling into a platform for war against Iran. “

Tony Blair isn’t the only one who has apparently learned little from the lessons of Iraq.  In Daniel Pipes’ February 2 piece in the National Review, “How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran”, Pipes offers the Obama Administration some free political advice: “He needs a dramatic gesture to change the public perception of him,” Pipes writes.  The answer to Obama’s political difficulties?  Bomb Iran.

Pipes states that such an attack would be “more politically palatable” because it would be limited to aerial strikes and thus “would require few ‘boots on the ground’ and entail relatively few casualties”.  No mention, however, of the Pentagon’s broadly accepted assessment that such strikes would not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program and would play into the hands of Iran’s government as it attempts to fight a growing popular uprising.

Like any good political strategist, instead of making the case that starting a war with Iran is good policy, Pipes argues that its good politics—he even supports his argument with polling data.  The cynicism in Pipes’ argument is underlined when he compares his proposed new war with Iran to 9/11, noting that the most deadly terrorist attacks on US soil were a political boon that “caused voters to forget George W. Bush’s meandering early months”—just think what bombing Iran could do for President Obama’s poll numbers.

“If Obama’s personality, identity, and celebrity captivated a majority of the American electorate in 2008, those qualities proved ruefully deficient for governing in 2009.”  So in Pipes’ world, “bomb, bomb Iran” is new “Yes we can”.

Iran’s Space Jam

Press TV reports that Iran has launched a rocket capable of putting a satellite into space, this time equipped with living organisms. The worms, two turtles, and  rat were monitored by video transmission aboard Kavoshgar-3, and were studied by scientists upon their return to earth.

“Projects that we inaugurated are mostly on the very edge of modern technology… each one of them call for a national celebration,” Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday, while addressing a gathering of scientists and state officials.

“Those individuals whose contributions have made all this possible deserve praise,” he added.

CNN further reports that the White House believes the launch of  Kavoshgar- 3 or Explorer 3 to be a “provocative act,” raising international concern. Spokesperson Bill Burton said that the US is still verifying that all accounts of the launch are accurate.

Although Ahmadinejad is describing the aerospace launch as a symbol of hope for the region, the morning launch has sprung much international animosity.

“Developing a space launch vehicle that could … put a satellite into orbit could possibly lead to development of a ballistic missile system,” State Department deputy spokesman Robert Wood said at the time. “So that’s a grave concern to us.”

The Pentagon called the plan “clearly a concern of ours.”, while President Obama added “that it’s not too late for Iran to do the right thing.”

Bartering Prisoners? Ahmadinejad hints at detained hikers’ release.

The Associated Press reports (via Washingtonpost.com)  Ahmadinejad has hinted at the possible release of three jailed US hikers… in exchange for Iranians currently serving time in US prisons.

“There are some talks under way to have an exchange, if it is possible,” he said. “Recently they (the U.S.) have sent messages, we answered to bring them (the Iranians), to bring these people (the hikers). We are hopeful that all prisoners to be released.”

No specific Iranian prisoners were mentioned by Ahmadinejad, but he had previously released a list of 11 Iranians believed to be detained in the US.  The list, released in December, includes a nuclear scientist that had disappeared in Saudi Arabia, an Iranian arrested in Canada on charges of trying to obtain nuclear technology, and a former Defense Ministry official who vanished in Turkey.

“I had said I would help in releasing them, but the attitude of some of U.S. officials damages the job,” said Ahmadinejad. “There are a large number of Iranians in prison in the U.S. They have abducted some of our citizens in other countries.”

Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd, and Josh Fattal are all UC Berkeley graduates that were detained 6 months ago on accounts of “suspicious aims” while hiking in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region. Their families state that the three accidentally crossed the border into Iran, but Ahmadinejad disputes this, stating that there were “indications they knew they were crossing into Iran.”

In late December, Iran’s foreign minister said that the three US detainees would be tried in court, but failed to mention any specific charge or when the trial would actually begin.

“Revolution is not Completed; Dictatorship Still Exists”

The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, February 11, is commemorated in Iran as a day to recognize the Iranian people’s stand against all forms of dictatorship.  That day 31 years ago was one of the bloodiest of the Iranian uprising that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty and its dictatorial regime. This year, the government expects massive popular protests to erupt as Iranians continue to hijack official government holidays to demand their rights and demonstrate their frustration with the disputed June 2009 election that put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back in office for another four years.

In a recent interview on his website Kalameh, Mir Hossein Mousavi, one of the main speakers for the opposition movement, discussed how elements of dictatorship have not been eradicated from the Iranian power structure, even after the Islamic Revolution. Mousavi stated that a theocratic totalitarianism is the darkest form of dictatorship man has seen in history, hinting that the “revolution” has not reached its goals and is therefore incomplete.  He went on to say that people should be the decision makers in their social and political journey and not the unelected officials who are currently in charge.

Mousavi’s remarks, coming at a time when tensions are at their highest level between the Iranian government and the Iranian people, are a unmasked call to stand up to the status quo. One could go a step further and interpret his comments as a suggestion that a revolution remains in progress as the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution approaches.  Mousavi said “the “revolution is not completed because dictatorship still exists.”

Tehran dismisses another US sanction

Last Thursday the US senate passed a broad, indiscriminate sanctions bill that would restrict Iran’s importation of petroleum; predictably this move was promptly dismissed by authorities in Tehran. It is reported, (via www.presstv.com) that Ramin Mehman-Parast, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman told the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) that the US will not persuade Iran to give up any “legal rights” to its nuclear program, as Iran has adamantly claimed that the nuclear program is in line with Iran’s commitment to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

We have repeatedly said that the US sanctions imposed against our nation during the past 31 years … have resulted in nothing but our nations’ stronger determination to assert independence and achieve self-reliance,” [Mehman-Parast] said.

The Senate bill will require President Obama to punish foreign companies that export gasoline to Iran.

Additionally, Press TV also reports that senior Iranian lawmaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel gave a speech on Monday, stating that Tehran will stand firmly by its cause regardless if the US is trying to gain universal consensus for sanctions against Iran, conveying that Iran’s national response to the world powers is “Independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic.”

The Iranian nation conveys this message to arrogant and bullying powers that it will firmly support its independence, freedom and ideals,” said Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel on Monday in a speech on the occasion of the start of ceremonies marking the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.
“We will not bow to pressure [of bullying powers] concerning our legal right to peaceful nuclear technology”.

Senate Votes to Undermine Obama and Punish Innocent Iranians

(Cross-posted from Huffington Post)

This past Thursday, the Senate voted to pass disastrous legislation under the auspices of getting “tough” on Iran. Unfortunately, the bill is only “tough” on the Iranian people, punishing them in the midst of their historic struggle for rights while hamstringing the President as he deals with Iran’s nuclear program. To top it off, the world’s greatest deliberative body spent a whopping 5 minutes debating the bill. The Majority Leader refused to consider any amendments, including significant changes proposed by the Administration and ultimately the bill passed by voice vote in front of a mostly empty chamber.

The bill, S.2799, the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2009, is composed of several outdated ideas conceived well before the tectonic shift in Iran that followed stolen June elections. Like the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act recently passed by the House, this bill would cut off gasoline that Iranians use to heat their homes and fuel their cars. The Senate has signaled that, in the midst of the Iranian people’s stand against brutal repression from their own government, the US Government intends to punish them as well.

BREAKING: Senate Approves Broad Iran Sanctions

Just over an hour ago, (6pm Thurs.) the Senate passed a sweeping expansion of Iran sanctions by unanimous voice vote.  The bill, S.2799, was introduced by Senator Dodd last Fall and would require the President to impose draconian sanctions on a broad range of activities involving gasoline imports in Iran.

Some, including NIAC, have criticized the bill for imposing mandatory sanctions that the President must enforce (or else issue a waiver on a case-by-case basis), rather than giving the President options.  Many Obama administration officials have weighed in as well on the measure, recommending that it be altered to preserve the President’s flexibility in matters of foreign policy and that it be tailored so as not to harm innocent Iranians.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had this to say prior to the bill’s passage:

McConnell: Madame President. Frequently these kinds of unilateral sanctions measures make little or no difference.  This measure, however, is crafted in such a way that it could actually be effective with America alone, not having to depend on cooperation of other countries that tend to be less concerned about whether Iran ultimately becomes armed with  nuclear weapons.  So this is an important piece of legislation as the Majority Leader has said, as Senator McCain has said, as Senator Lieberman has said.  It can actually make a difference.

The timing for this move was unexpected, after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced only days ago that he expected the bill to be brought up “in the next few weeks.”

2 More Executed in Iran

The NY Times reports that Mohammad-Ali Zamani and Arash Rahamipour were hanged before dawn for their suspected role in the April 2008 mosque bombing in Shiraz, Iran. The mosque bombing killed 13 people and left 200 others wounded. 9 others were also found guilty of “moharebeh”, or being enemies of God, as they were arrested in the midst of the December Ashura protests.

This is being viewed as an attempt to frighten protesters before the 31^st anniversary of the Islamic Republic on February 11, where anti-government rallies are to be expected.

“Following the riots and anti revolutionary and foundation-breaking actions of last few months, especially on the day of Ashura, Tehran’s revolutionary court has sentenced 11 people to death,” the semiofficial ISNA news service reported.

Amnesty International further reports that Iran is second to China in rate of executions; President Ahmadinejad’s execution rate has nearly quadrupled, from 86 in 2005, the year he initially took office, up to 346 in 2008. Human rights groups additionally report that over 115 have been killed since the disputed June presidential elections and Ahmadinejad’s August inauguration.

Notably, Zamani and Rahamipour’s family members state that the two were arrested before the election, and were not involved in the post-election protests.

In an interview in October with the Rooz Online Web site, Mr. Rahmanipour’s lawyer, Nasrin Sotoudeh, said that his client was actually arrested in late March or April. “He has nothing to do with the election or the post-election events,” Mr. Sotoudeh said at the time. “They tried to create fear when he was arrested and even arrested his pregnant sister.”

Adding to the confusion of Mr. Alizamani’s arrest, some Iranian news sites report that he was detained before the protests. Regardless of the causes of arrest, the executions are seemingly intended as defense; the Iranian governments is apparently gearing itself for another round of opposition come February 11^th.

Zahra: No compromise, no recognition of Ahmadinejad government

“We have made a shield of our chest and are ready for any kind of attack and terror,” stated Zahra Rahnavard, wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, responding to a question about the prices their family has had to pay. “These prices have not been paid for Mr. Mousavi, but for the Green movement. We are not focused on the individual and individualism and our family is no different than the rest of the people making sacrifices and paying a price.“

In an interview with Rooz Online (via Payvand.com/news), Dr. Rahnavard also lashed out at rumors that the Green trifecta – Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami – had made a back-door compromise to recognize Ahmadinejad’s government.

This is absolutely not true, no compromise whatsoever is in the works. I don’t see any compromise in [Mousavi's latest] statement, rather I believe it lays out the minimum desires and aspirations of the people of Iran that the current regime could easily fulfill.

Interesting use of the term “current regime,” no? She’s appearing as pragmatic as possible – which is good considering the position they’re in. Speculation remains on whether or not this government – this regime, rather – can make a compromise.

When asked whether or not she believes they’ll compromise, she gave the typical vague Persian answer best embodied in the term, “Khoda midaaneh.”

I cannot foresee what will happen in the future. I can only hope that whatever happens is in the best interest of the people of Iran and that it honors our nation. I want to emphasize the fact that we neither acknowledge the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad’s government, nor are we making any behind the scenes compromises.

For more, please click here.

Israeli Def Min: Failure of Peace Process Greater Threat Than Iranian Nukes

Time and time again, Iran’s nuclear program is cited as the greatest threat to Israeli security, a theme that Prime Minister Netanyahu has continually evoked since starting office last March. On Tuesday, though, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak broke away from this trend, suggesting that the domestic Palestinian-Israeli conflict poses as a much greater threat than any Iranian nuclear program, as reported by Ha’aretz .

The lack of a solution to the problem of border demarcation within the historic Land of Israel – and not an Iranian bomb – is the most serious threat to Israel’s future,” Barak told a Tel Aviv conference.

Additional sources further report Barak’s warning that unless Israel helps create a Palestinian state, it could end up losing its Jewish character or becoming undemocratic, affirming  that the peaces-deadlock is the most imminent threat.

“It must be understood that if between the Jordan [River] and the [Mediterranean Sea] there is only one political entity called ‘Israel’, it will by necessity either be not Jewish or not democratic, and we will turn into an apartheid state.”

Mr. Barak’s defiance of Prime Minister Netanyahu comes amid growing frustration and increasing desire to restart peace talks, with the Obama Administration weighing in strongly in favor of new negotiations.